{
  "as_of": "2026-06-08T20:28:55.661Z",
  "track_record": {
    "as_of": "2026-06-08T16:18:12.493597+00:00",
    "calibration_points": [],
    "predictions": [
      {
        "claim": "By 2027-12-31, AbbVie (ABBV) will report combined trailing-twelve-month net revenue from Skyrizi + Rinvoq of at least $33B AND the combined growth platform (Skyrizi + Rinvoq + neuroscience + aesthetics ex-Humira) will exceed 65% of total company revenue.",
        "confidence": 0.62,
        "created_at": "2026-05-30T00:08:53.305957",
        "horizon_days": 580,
        "outcome": null,
        "slug": "20260530t040853z_cdb7ff0c",
        "status": "live"
      },
      {
        "claim": "From 2026-05-30 close to 2027-05-30 close, XLC total return minus XLB total return will be greater than or equal to +600 basis points",
        "confidence": 0.58,
        "created_at": "2026-05-30T00:25:37.551766",
        "horizon_days": 365,
        "outcome": null,
        "slug": "20260530t042537z_8d017221",
        "status": "live"
      },
      {
        "claim": "Through 31 December 2026, the volume-weighted average launched list price of FDA-approved gene/cell therapies for U.S. ultra-rare indications (<20k prevalence) launched in 2025-2026 will remain above $1.5M per single-administration course (or $500k/year for chronic dosing), AND the CMS Medicare Drug Price Negotiation list for IPAY 2029 (announced on or before 1 February 2027) will contain no more than one drug whose only FDA-approved indication(s) are orphan-designated.",
        "confidence": 0.65,
        "created_at": "2026-05-30T03:20:00.869708",
        "horizon_days": 215,
        "outcome": null,
        "slug": "20260530t072000z_e6dc0b1c",
        "status": "live"
      },
      {
        "claim": "The rolling 90-day total-return correlation between DUK and TLT, computed on 2026-12-31 using the trailing 63 trading days, will be below 0.40.",
        "confidence": 0.42,
        "created_at": "2026-05-30T08:40:14.784650",
        "horizon_days": 215,
        "outcome": null,
        "slug": "20260530t124014z_0d279c5b",
        "status": "live"
      },
      {
        "claim": "Conditional on RVX printing at or above its trailing-1-year 90th percentile on any day within the next 90 days, IJR will NOT underperform IWM by more than 100 bps total-return over the 20 trading days following that print.",
        "confidence": 0.58,
        "created_at": "2026-05-30T10:17:51.085324",
        "horizon_days": 90,
        "outcome": null,
        "slug": "20260530t141751z_be5b76ff",
        "status": "live"
      },
      {
        "claim": "The U.S. Treasury's August 2026 Quarterly Refunding Announcement will NOT reduce the auction size of any nominal coupon tenor (2/3/5/7/10/20/30y) relative to July 2026 levels.",
        "confidence": 0.72,
        "created_at": "2026-05-30T12:01:02.750945",
        "horizon_days": 72,
        "outcome": null,
        "slug": "20260530t160102z_49d03dd4",
        "status": "live"
      },
      {
        "claim": "Over the next 90 days (to ~late August 2026), the trailing 13-week average of U.S. Federal Reserve primary credit (discount window) borrowing, per the weekly H.4.1 release, will remain at or above $3B — structurally elevated versus the 2015-2019 sub-$1B norm — consistent with durable destigmatization rather than reversion to the pre-2023 funding regime.",
        "confidence": 0.62,
        "created_at": "2026-05-30T17:39:25.320443",
        "horizon_days": 90,
        "outcome": null,
        "slug": "20260530t213925z_3ed4e7d8",
        "status": "live"
      },
      {
        "claim": "Between 2026-05-31 and 2026-08-29, at least one of the following will be publicly announced: (a) a US FDA approval or formal label expansion of an oral GLP-1 / incretin agent for chronic weight management, or (b) a CMS / Medicare national-coverage action expanding obesity-drug reimbursement.",
        "confidence": 0.55,
        "created_at": "2026-05-31T09:53:04.799226",
        "horizon_days": 90,
        "outcome": null,
        "slug": "20260531t135304z_2b522172",
        "status": "live"
      },
      {
        "claim": "Over the next 90 days the US tight-oil supply response stays in a capital-discipline plateau: the Baker Hughes US oil rig count does NOT rise more than 10% above its latest reported weekly reading, AND consecutive EIA STEO releases do NOT revise near-term US/Permian crude production up by more than 3% versus the current baseline.",
        "confidence": 0.63,
        "created_at": "2026-06-01T09:54:22.725763",
        "horizon_days": 90,
        "outcome": null,
        "slug": "20260601t135422z_b15c4890",
        "status": "live"
      },
      {
        "claim": "SHY daily closing price stays within +/-1.5% of $82.01 (no close below $80.78 nor above $83.24) for the next 90 days, reflecting the ~1.8y-duration cap on front-end price sensitivity.",
        "confidence": 0.8,
        "created_at": "2026-06-01T19:01:40.189695",
        "horizon_days": 90,
        "outcome": null,
        "slug": "20260601t230140z_8b6b9b00",
        "status": "live"
      },
      {
        "claim": "DBC (Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund) closes at or below $29.40 at the 60-day horizon, as late-cycle demand softening and a firm broad dollar cap the commodity complex.",
        "confidence": 0.58,
        "created_at": "2026-06-02T19:03:21.216976",
        "horizon_days": 60,
        "outcome": null,
        "slug": "20260602t230321z_affaed88",
        "status": "live"
      },
      {
        "claim": "AVGO trades at or above $410 (a +6.3% advance from the $385.73 reference) in at least one regular session within 90 days.",
        "confidence": 0.62,
        "created_at": "2026-06-06T23:56:07.626826",
        "horizon_days": 90,
        "outcome": null,
        "slug": "20260607t035607z_79c6bcf6",
        "status": "live"
      }
    ],
    "summary": {
      "brier_to_date": null,
      "counts_by_status": {
        "awaiting": 0,
        "falsified": 0,
        "live": 12,
        "vindicated": 0
      }
    }
  },
  "status": {
    "as_of": "2026-06-08T18:12:31.696943+00:00",
    "feeds": {
      "edgar": {
        "last_success_ts": "2026-06-08T17:52:24.085886+00:00",
        "severity": "ok"
      },
      "fred": {
        "last_success_ts": "2026-06-08T17:52:34.338354+00:00",
        "severity": "ok"
      },
      "rss": {
        "last_success_ts": "2026-06-08T17:52:34.775176+00:00",
        "severity": "ok"
      },
      "yfinance": {
        "last_success_ts": "2026-06-08T17:52:33.904209+00:00",
        "severity": "ok"
      }
    }
  },
  "theses": [
    {
      "slug": "20260607t035607z_79c6bcf6",
      "url": "/thesis/broadcom-avgo-as-a-leveraged-proxy-for-the-two-strongest-live-capex-cycles-in-a-f3838230/",
      "title": "Broadcom (AVGO) as a leveraged proxy for the two strongest live capex cycles, in a regime that isn't pricing stress",
      "created_at": "2026-06-07T03:56:07.623Z",
      "top_concepts": [
        [
          "avgo",
          0.9458344952976475
        ],
        [
          "psx",
          0.9136849220049629
        ],
        [
          "reshoring_capex",
          0.8065417186047974
        ],
        [
          "graham_intrinsic_value",
          0.7971367624383907
        ],
        [
          "prior_auth_reform",
          0.786293446274961
        ]
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "20260602t230321z_affaed88",
      "url": "/thesis/the-commodity-complex-is-priced-for-a-demand-backdrop-the-late-cycle-data-no-20c523db/",
      "title": "the commodity complex is priced for a demand backdrop the late-cycle data no longer supports",
      "created_at": "2026-06-02T23:03:21.215Z",
      "top_concepts": [
        [
          "quality_investing",
          0.8934867841525611
        ],
        [
          "dividend_yield",
          0.8548925775235343
        ],
        [
          "brk_b",
          0.8131569510968136
        ],
        [
          "dbc",
          0.7902637161406706
        ],
        [
          "tsla",
          0.6905694535442178
        ]
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "20260601t230140z_8b6b9b00",
      "url": "/thesis/shy-is-duration-pinned-only-a-front-end-repricing-not-drift-can-break-the-band-7c6eb9fc/",
      "title": "SHY is duration-pinned — only a front-end repricing, not drift, can break the band",
      "created_at": "2026-06-01T23:01:40.187Z",
      "top_concepts": [
        [
          "availability",
          0.8264953722085195
        ],
        [
          "shy",
          0.7806265614509951
        ],
        [
          "quality",
          0.727960038786947
        ],
        [
          "building_electrification",
          0.6798415926750825
        ],
        [
          "vz",
          0.6721183218527403
        ]
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "20260601t135422z_b15c4890",
      "url": "/thesis/us-shale-is-plateauing-under-capital-discipline-not-staging-a-price-driven-85357290/",
      "title": "US shale is plateauing under capital discipline, not staging a price-driven \"revival\"",
      "created_at": "2026-06-01T13:54:22.723Z",
      "top_concepts": [
        [
          "oil_gas_exploration",
          0.855386719694677
        ],
        [
          "medicare_negotiation",
          0.7776082444320594
        ],
        [
          "enterprise_motion",
          0.7773793097076241
        ],
        [
          "mub",
          0.7336300286742803
        ],
        [
          "shale_revival",
          0.7222068268148858
        ]
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "20260531t135304z_2b522172",
      "url": "/thesis/regulatory-catalyst-concentration-is-shortening-the-half-life-of-momentum-in-0e83a56a/",
      "title": "Regulatory catalyst concentration is shortening the half-life of momentum in weight-loss pharma",
      "created_at": "2026-05-31T13:53:04.797Z",
      "top_concepts": [
        [
          "weight_loss_pharma",
          0.898595162457258
        ],
        [
          "regulatory",
          0.761003904013708
        ],
        [
          "momentum_reversal_1m",
          0.742734322757147
        ],
        [
          "longevity_biotech",
          0.727143378101296
        ],
        [
          "india_growth",
          0.7114032959740376
        ]
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "20260530t213925z_3ed4e7d8",
      "url": "/thesis/the-market-is-overconfident-that-the-post-btfp-bank-funding-transition-is-c80db18e/",
      "title": "The market is overconfident that the post-BTFP bank-funding transition is \"complete and benign\" — the embedded liquidity option has merely migrated, not vanished",
      "created_at": "2026-05-30T21:39:25.318Z",
      "top_concepts": [
        [
          "overconfidence",
          0.9549999348393086
        ],
        [
          "real_options",
          0.9203866103068183
        ],
        [
          "bank_term_funding",
          0.8898432385796451
        ],
        [
          "quantum_compute",
          0.8037631469652701
        ],
        [
          "decarbonisation",
          0.7904586836389486
        ]
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "20260530t160102z_49d03dd4",
      "url": "/thesis/the-treasury-supply-glut-keeps-the-10y-term-premium-structurally-positive-and-42dfc49c/",
      "title": "The Treasury supply glut keeps the 10y term premium structurally positive, and the next near-term test is the August 2026 refunding",
      "created_at": "2026-05-30T16:01:02.748Z",
      "top_concepts": [
        [
          "dividend_discount",
          0.7860687034339561
        ],
        [
          "treasury_supply_glut",
          0.7591787673589288
        ],
        [
          "oil_gas_majors",
          0.7428576908959911
        ],
        [
          "re_shoring",
          0.742415458758914
        ],
        [
          "direct_air_capture",
          0.7411212666838464
        ]
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "20260530t141751z_be5b76ff",
      "url": "/thesis/the-ijr-iwm-profitability-wedge-re-asserts-itself-in-the-next-small-cap-stress-c6a01cc7/",
      "title": "The IJR–IWM profitability wedge re-asserts itself in the next small-cap stress window",
      "created_at": "2026-05-30T14:17:51.083Z",
      "top_concepts": [
        [
          "profitability_operating",
          0.8371465022622331
        ],
        [
          "ijr",
          0.7506685576125193
        ],
        [
          "distressed_investing",
          0.7268873348085226
        ],
        [
          "mdt",
          0.6244926140626591
        ],
        [
          "lng_buildout",
          0.6034795604225582
        ]
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "20260530t124014z_0d279c5b",
      "url": "/thesis/utility-duration-decoupling-under-load-growth-regime-8ec32151/",
      "title": "Utility/Duration Decoupling Under Load-Growth Regime",
      "created_at": "2026-05-30T12:40:14.782Z",
      "top_concepts": [
        [
          "tlt",
          0.9495759257818919
        ],
        [
          "enterprise_motion",
          0.7704993977841086
        ],
        [
          "building_electrification",
          0.7678126550192695
        ],
        [
          "cell_cultivated_meat",
          0.7584582796556745
        ],
        [
          "duk",
          0.7564678767335503
        ]
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "20260530t072000z_e6dc0b1c",
      "url": "/thesis/ultra-orphan-list-price-durability-through-end-2026-315e3863/",
      "title": "Ultra-orphan list-price durability through end-2026",
      "created_at": "2026-05-30T07:20:00.866Z",
      "top_concepts": [
        [
          "rare_disease_pricing",
          0.9549997137251391
        ],
        [
          "grid_modernisation",
          0.826712613384851
        ],
        [
          "amd",
          0.8167846797670958
        ],
        [
          "treasury_supply_glut",
          0.6678461662087317
        ],
        [
          "contrarian_investing",
          0.659242489487953
        ]
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "20260530t042537z_8d017221",
      "url": "/thesis/communication-services-xlc-will-outperform-materials-xlb-on-a-total-return-e24cabfd/",
      "title": "Communication Services (XLC) will outperform Materials (XLB) on a total-return basis over the next 365 days, driven by a structurally deflationary input-cost regime that compresses XLB margins more than it compresses XLC margins",
      "created_at": "2026-05-30T04:25:37.549Z",
      "top_concepts": [
        [
          "deflation",
          0.8171820006413882
        ],
        [
          "communication_services",
          0.7953894326939627
        ],
        [
          "future_currency",
          0.7039945485129443
        ],
        [
          "xlb",
          0.6934203951161839
        ],
        [
          "long_short_equity",
          0.6882417919196638
        ]
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "20260530t040853z_cdb7ff0c",
      "url": "/thesis/abbvies-neuroscience-pivot-is-structurally-underwriting-a-re-rating-that-will-648e88d9/",
      "title": "AbbVie's neuroscience pivot is structurally underwriting a re-rating that will hold through the Humira biosimilar trough",
      "created_at": "2026-05-30T04:08:53.304Z",
      "top_concepts": [
        [
          "abbv",
          0.9538768143411348
        ],
        [
          "photonic_compute",
          0.9142499752844987
        ],
        [
          "aging_demographics",
          0.9024790203523796
        ],
        [
          "cmcsa",
          0.8855202529011552
        ],
        [
          "dcf",
          0.7252522252890307
        ]
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "20260529t082630z_16e4b48f",
      "url": "/thesis/tsmcs-leading-edge-moat-is-structural-not-cyclical-horizon-through-q4-2027-03b2366d/",
      "title": "TSMC's leading-edge moat is structural, not cyclical (horizon: through Q4 2027)",
      "created_at": "2026-05-29T08:26:30.256Z",
      "top_concepts": [
        [
          "t",
          0.914742177821623
        ],
        [
          "circular_economy",
          0.857836174736958
        ],
        [
          "leverage_debt_equity",
          0.8252069328908829
        ],
        [
          "tsm",
          0.8006696260921392
        ],
        [
          "platform_dynamics",
          0.7861208441364568
        ]
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "20260528t044838z_f8d96a5a",
      "url": "/thesis/rules-based-us-momentum-mtum-is-structurally-converging-on-mega-cap-04750f21/",
      "title": "Rules-based US momentum (MTUM) is structurally converging on mega-cap concentration risk, eroding its diversification value versus cap-weighted beta",
      "created_at": "2026-05-28T04:48:38.304Z",
      "top_concepts": [
        [
          "network_effects",
          0.9549630783662851
        ],
        [
          "leverage_debt_equity",
          0.8558578774942747
        ],
        [
          "mtum",
          0.8087371939659547
        ],
        [
          "climate_adaptation",
          0.7503009787244763
        ],
        [
          "size_market_cap",
          0.725222784098167
        ]
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "20260527t094700z_45806773",
      "url": "/thesis/private-credit-growth-is-the-marginal-funder-of-late-stage-synthetic-biology-54cd5f4a/",
      "title": "Private-credit growth is the marginal funder of late-stage synthetic-biology platforms, and this funding channel is structurally fragile to a single repricing event",
      "created_at": "2026-05-27T09:47:00.544Z",
      "top_concepts": [
        [
          "synthetic_biology",
          0.9416074308150094
        ],
        [
          "private_credit_growth",
          0.9257051400673223
        ],
        [
          "momentum_reversal_1m",
          0.8967168156878834
        ],
        [
          "retail_investor_surge",
          0.8180960234235255
        ],
        [
          "product_led_growth",
          0.7395618792045883
        ]
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "20260526t041741z_f54b5c2f",
      "url": "/thesis/cmcsas-terminal-value-is-being-mispriced-by-treating-cable-broadband-as-a-fa027eca/",
      "title": "CMCSA's terminal value is being mispriced by treating cable broadband as a duration asset rather than a deflating utility",
      "created_at": "2026-05-26T04:17:41.354Z",
      "top_concepts": [
        [
          "cmcsa",
          0.9533433853437251
        ],
        [
          "deflation",
          0.8291804197539746
        ],
        [
          "telehealth_normalisation",
          0.826977867732841
        ],
        [
          "thematic_investing",
          0.7956020083950919
        ],
        [
          "vertical_farming",
          0.7746330542833503
        ]
      ]
    }
  ]
}