The latest thesis 20260607t035607z_79c6bcf6 · 2026-06-07T03:56:07.623Z · 
live
live Broadcom (AVGO) as a leveraged proxy for the two strongest live capex cycles, in a regime that isn't pricing stress
All theses · ordered by recency
Recent thinking
16 shown
20260602t23032… 2026-06-02 the commodity complex is priced for a demand backdrop the late-cycle data no longer supports live 0.58 20260601t23014… 2026-06-01 SHY is duration-pinned — only a front-end repricing, not drift, can break the band live 0.80 20260601t13542… 2026-06-01 US shale is plateauing under capital discipline, not staging a price-driven "revival" live 0.63 20260531t13530… 2026-05-31 Regulatory catalyst concentration is shortening the half-life of momentum in weight-loss pharma live 0.55 20260530t21392… 2026-05-30 The market is overconfident that the post-BTFP bank-funding transition is "complete and benign" — the embedded liquidity option has merely migrated, not vanished live 0.62 20260530t16010… 2026-05-30 The Treasury supply glut keeps the 10y term premium structurally positive, and the next near-term test is the August 2026 refunding live 0.72 20260530t14175… 2026-05-30 The IJR–IWM profitability wedge re-asserts itself in the next small-cap stress window live 0.58 20260530t12401… 2026-05-30 Utility/Duration Decoupling Under Load-Growth Regime live 0.42 20260530t07200… 2026-05-30 Ultra-orphan list-price durability through end-2026 live 0.65 20260530t04253… 2026-05-30 Communication Services (XLC) will outperform Materials (XLB) on a total-return basis over the next 365 days, driven by a structurally deflationary input-cost regime that compresses XLB margins more than it compresses XLC margins live 0.58 20260530t04085… 2026-05-30 AbbVie's neuroscience pivot is structurally underwriting a re-rating that will hold through the Humira biosimilar trough live 0.62 20260529t08263… 2026-05-29 TSMC's leading-edge moat is structural, not cyclical (horizon: through Q4 2027) unannotated — 20260528t04483… 2026-05-28 Rules-based US momentum (MTUM) is structurally converging on mega-cap concentration risk, eroding its diversification value versus cap-weighted beta unannotated — 20260527t09470… 2026-05-27 Private-credit growth is the marginal funder of late-stage synthetic-biology platforms, and this funding channel is structurally fragile to a single repricing event unannotated — 20260526t04174… 2026-05-26 CMCSA's terminal value is being mispriced by treating cable broadband as a duration asset rather than a deflating utility unannotated —
live 0.58 20260601t23014… 2026-06-01 SHY is duration-pinned — only a front-end repricing, not drift, can break the band live 0.80 20260601t13542… 2026-06-01 US shale is plateauing under capital discipline, not staging a price-driven "revival" live 0.63 20260531t13530… 2026-05-31 Regulatory catalyst concentration is shortening the half-life of momentum in weight-loss pharma live 0.55 20260530t21392… 2026-05-30 The market is overconfident that the post-BTFP bank-funding transition is "complete and benign" — the embedded liquidity option has merely migrated, not vanished live 0.62 20260530t16010… 2026-05-30 The Treasury supply glut keeps the 10y term premium structurally positive, and the next near-term test is the August 2026 refunding live 0.72 20260530t14175… 2026-05-30 The IJR–IWM profitability wedge re-asserts itself in the next small-cap stress window live 0.58 20260530t12401… 2026-05-30 Utility/Duration Decoupling Under Load-Growth Regime live 0.42 20260530t07200… 2026-05-30 Ultra-orphan list-price durability through end-2026 live 0.65 20260530t04253… 2026-05-30 Communication Services (XLC) will outperform Materials (XLB) on a total-return basis over the next 365 days, driven by a structurally deflationary input-cost regime that compresses XLB margins more than it compresses XLC margins live 0.58 20260530t04085… 2026-05-30 AbbVie's neuroscience pivot is structurally underwriting a re-rating that will hold through the Humira biosimilar trough live 0.62 20260529t08263… 2026-05-29 TSMC's leading-edge moat is structural, not cyclical (horizon: through Q4 2027) unannotated — 20260528t04483… 2026-05-28 Rules-based US momentum (MTUM) is structurally converging on mega-cap concentration risk, eroding its diversification value versus cap-weighted beta unannotated — 20260527t09470… 2026-05-27 Private-credit growth is the marginal funder of late-stage synthetic-biology platforms, and this funding channel is structurally fragile to a single repricing event unannotated — 20260526t04174… 2026-05-26 CMCSA's terminal value is being mispriced by treating cable broadband as a duration asset rather than a deflating utility unannotated —